nuvela.ai

NFL · WEEK 5 · MONDAY · FINAL

Bills vs Rams Player Props

Kickoff
Mon, Oct 12 · 5:15 PM PT
Venue
SoFi Stadium
Conditions
Indoor · dome

The game in numbers

  • -0.9Pass rate over expected
  • 5thPace rank, slate
  • DomeConditions

Research, not picks. A starting point to interrogate, never a recommendation.

WHERE THE GAP COMES FROM

TeamMarketNuvelaGap
Bills26.525.7−0.8
Rams29.528.6−0.9
Game total55.554.3−1.2

The two sides carry the disagreement roughly evenly, so this is a read on the game rather than on either offence.

EVERY PROP IN THIS GAME

Player, game and team props for this matchup. A reason to look closer, never a recommendation.

174 props · by largest gap vs typical error

Player props170

Bills · Away11 players

RECEPTIONS
2.5MARKET−0.8GAP1.7Tank01 projection
Actual 4.0 · final resultRECEIVING YARDS
14.5MARKET−1.7In line with market12.8Tank01, median-adjusted
Actual 72.0 · final resultRUSH + REC YARDS
22.5MARKET−1.6In line with market20.9Tank01, median-adjusted
Actual 72.0 · final resultLONGEST RECEPTION
9.5MARKET+1.8WIDE11.3Nuvela
Actual 40.0 · final resultRUSHING YARDS
4.5MARKET+3.6In line with market8.1Tank01 projection
Actual 0.0 · final result1ST TD
3%MARKET · IMPLIED, INCL. BOOK MARGIN—MARKET ONLY
Actual No · final resultANYTIME TD
14%MARKET · IMPLIED, INCL. BOOK MARGIN—MARKET ONLY
Actual Didn't score · final resultLAST TD
3%MARKET · IMPLIED, INCL. BOOK MARGIN—MARKET ONLY
Actual No · final result
Depth and touchdown only · 3 players · 9 props

Rams · Home10 players

Depth and touchdown only · 5 players · 15 props

Game props2

Game Total PointsCOMBINED SCORE
55.5MARKET−1.2GAP54.354.3
Season range 34-72
Expected MarginHANDICAP · DIFFERENT SCALE
LA by 3.5MARKET+0.6GAP2.9LA by 2.9
Season range 3-22

Team props2

Bills · Away1 market

BillsTEAM TOTAL POINTS
26.5MARKET−0.8GAP25.7Nuvela
Season range 24-41

Rams · Home1 market

RamsTEAM TOTAL POINTS
29.5MARKET−0.9GAP28.6Nuvela
Season range 7-28