nuvela.ai

NFL · WEEK 3 · SUNDAY · FINAL

Chargers vs Bills Player Props

Kickoff
Sun, Sep 27 · 10:00 AM PT
Venue
Highmark Stadium
Conditions
Outdoor · 68F, 12 mph wind

The game in numbers

  • -3Pass rate over expected
  • 9thPace rank, slate
  • OutdoorConditions

Research, not picks. A starting point to interrogate, never a recommendation.

WHERE THE GAP COMES FROM

TeamMarketNuvelaGap
Chargers20.521.2+0.7
Bills29.528.9−0.6
Game total50.550.1−0.4

The two sides carry the disagreement roughly evenly, so this is a read on the game rather than on either offence.

EVERY PROP IN THIS GAME

Player, game and team props for this matchup. A reason to look closer, never a recommendation.

145 props · by largest gap vs typical error

Player props141

Chargers · Away7 players

RECEPTIONS
4.5MARKET−1.4WIDE3.1Nuvela
Actual 4.0 · final resultRECEIVING YARDS
58.5MARKET−11.7WIDE46.8Tank01, median-adjusted
Actual 66.0 · final resultLONGEST RECEPTION
20.5MARKET−0.5GAP20.0Nuvela
Actual 29.0 · final result1ST TD
6%MARKET · IMPLIED, INCL. BOOK MARGIN—MARKET ONLY
Actual No · final resultANYTIME TD
32%MARKET · IMPLIED, INCL. BOOK MARGIN—MARKET ONLY
Actual Didn't score · final resultLAST TD
8%MARKET · IMPLIED, INCL. BOOK MARGIN—MARKET ONLY
Actual No · final result
Depth and touchdown only · 7 players · 19 props

Bills · Home7 players

Depth and touchdown only · 6 players · 18 props

Game props2

Game Total PointsCOMBINED SCORE
50.5MARKET−0.4GAP50.150.1
Season range 40-72
Expected MarginHANDICAP · DIFFERENT SCALE
BUF by 7.0MARKET+0.6GAP7.6BUF by 7.6
Season range 5-12

Team props2

Chargers · Away1 market

ChargersTEAM TOTAL POINTS
20.5MARKET+0.7GAP21.2Nuvela
Season range 14-14

Bills · Home1 market

BillsTEAM TOTAL POINTS
29.5MARKET−0.6GAP28.9Nuvela
Season range 36-41