nuvela.ai

NFL · WEEK 1 · WEDNESDAY · FINAL

Patriots vs Seahawks Player Props

Kickoff
Wed, Sep 9 · 5:20 PM PT
Venue
Lumen Field
Conditions
Outdoor · 74F, 6 mph wind

The game in numbers

  • —Pass rate over expected
  • —Pace rank, slate
  • OutdoorConditions

Research, not picks. A starting point to interrogate, never a recommendation.

WHERE THE GAP COMES FROM

TeamMarketNuvelaGap
Patriots20.521.2+0.7
Seahawks23.526.0+2.5
Game total44.547.2+2.7

The Seahawks carry 78% of the gap, so the disagreement is about their scoring rather than the game's.

EVERY PROP IN THIS GAME

Player, game and team props for this matchup. A reason to look closer, never a recommendation.

165 props · by largest gap vs typical error

Player props161

Patriots · Away8 players

RECEIVING YARDS
23.5MARKET−6.3WIDE17.2Tank01, median-adjusted
Actual 44.0 · final resultRECEPTIONS
3.5MARKET−0.6GAP2.9Tank01 projection
Actual 5.0 · final resultRUSHING YARDS
58.5MARKET+7.3MODERATE65.8Tank01 projection
Actual 51.0 · final resultRUSH + REC YARDS
86.5MARKET−3.5In line with market83.0Tank01, median-adjusted
Actual 95.0 · final resultRUSH ATTEMPTS
15.5MARKET+0.5In line with market16.0Tank01 projection
Actual 18.0 · final resultLONGEST RECEPTION
11.5MARKET+3.1WIDE14.6Nuvela
Actual 17.0 · final resultLONGEST RUSH
13.5MARKET+1.4MODERATE14.9Nuvela
Actual 12.0 · final result1ST TD
14%MARKET · IMPLIED, INCL. BOOK MARGIN—MARKET ONLY
Actual No · final resultANYTIME TD
49%MARKET · IMPLIED, INCL. BOOK MARGIN—MARKET ONLY
Actual Didn't score · final resultLAST TD
13%MARKET · IMPLIED, INCL. BOOK MARGIN—MARKET ONLY
Actual No · final result
Depth and touchdown only · 7 players · 21 props

Seahawks · Home8 players

Depth and touchdown only · 7 players · 21 props

Game props2

Game Total PointsCOMBINED SCORE
44.5MARKET+2.7GAP47.247.2
No season history yet
Expected MarginHANDICAP · DIFFERENT SCALE
SEA by 3.0MARKET+1.8GAP4.8SEA by 4.8
No season history yet

Team props2

Patriots · Away1 market

PatriotsTEAM TOTAL POINTS
20.5MARKET+0.7GAP21.2Nuvela
No season history yet

Seahawks · Home1 market

SeahawksTEAM TOTAL POINTS
23.5MARKET+2.5GAP26.0Nuvela
No season history yet