nuvela.ai

NFL · WEEK 5 · SUNDAY · FINAL

Ravens vs Falcons Player Props

Kickoff
Sun, Oct 11 · 5:20 PM PT
Venue
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Conditions
Outdoor

The game in numbers

  • -8.4Pass rate over expected
  • 9thPace rank, slate
  • OutdoorConditions

Research, not picks. A starting point to interrogate, never a recommendation.

WHERE THE GAP COMES FROM

TeamMarketNuvelaGap
Ravens20.524.1+3.6
Falcons23.524.8+1.3
Game total44.548.9+4.4

The Ravens carry 73% of the gap, so the disagreement is about their scoring rather than the game's.

EVERY PROP IN THIS GAME

Player, game and team props for this matchup. A reason to look closer, never a recommendation.

150 props · by largest gap vs typical error

Player props146

Ravens · Away8 players

RUSH ATTEMPTS
5.5MARKET+1.2WIDE6.7Tank01 projection
Actual 6.0 · final resultPASSING YARDS
178.5MARKET+20.5MODERATE199.0Tank01 projection
Actual 201.0 · final resultPASS + RUSH YARDS
210.5MARKET+17.9In line with market228.4Tank01 projection
Actual 221.0 · final resultPASS ATTEMPTS
27.5MARKET+0.9In line with market28.4Tank01 projection
Actual 32.0 · final resultCOMPLETIONS
18.5MARKET+0.4In line with market18.9Tank01 projection
Actual 24.0 · final resultRUSHING YARDS
29.5MARKET−0.1In line with market29.4Tank01 projection
Actual 20.0 · final resultLONGEST RUSH
11.5MARKET+14.0WIDE25.5Nuvela
Actual 15.0 · final resultLONGEST COMPLETION
30.5MARKET—GAP— We don't have enough to project this market yet.—
Actual 20.0 · final result1ST TD
4%MARKET · IMPLIED, INCL. BOOK MARGIN—MARKET ONLY
Actual No · final resultANYTIME TD
19%MARKET · IMPLIED, INCL. BOOK MARGIN—MARKET ONLY
Actual Scored · final resultLAST TD
5%MARKET · IMPLIED, INCL. BOOK MARGIN—MARKET ONLY
Actual Yes · final resultINTERCEPTIONS
0.5MARKET46%OVER · NO-VIG IMPLIED—MARKET ONLY
Actual 0.0 · final resultPASSING TDS
1.5MARKET35%OVER · NO-VIG IMPLIED—MARKET ONLY
Actual 2.0 · final result
Depth and touchdown only · 7 players · 21 props

Falcons · Home8 players

Depth and touchdown only · 4 players · 12 props

Game props2

Game Total PointsCOMBINED SCORE
44.5MARKET+4.4GAP48.948.9
Season range 33-69
Expected MarginHANDICAP · DIFFERENT SCALE
ATL by 3.5MARKET+2.7GAP0.8ATL by 0.8
Season range 3-31

Team props2

Ravens · Away1 market

RavensTEAM TOTAL POINTS
20.5MARKET+3.6GAP24.1Nuvela
Season range 17-41

Falcons · Home1 market

FalconsTEAM TOTAL POINTS
23.5MARKET+1.3GAP24.8Nuvela
Season range 3-45