nuvela.ai

NFL · WEEK 2 · THURSDAY · FINAL

Lions vs Bills Player Props

Kickoff
Thu, Sep 17 · 5:15 PM PT
Venue
Highmark Stadium
Conditions
Outdoor · 67F, 4 mph wind, clouds

The game in numbers

  • +0.8Pass rate over expected
  • 6thPace rank, slate
  • OutdoorConditions

Research, not picks. A starting point to interrogate, never a recommendation.

WHERE THE GAP COMES FROM

TeamMarketNuvelaGap
Lions24.526.2+1.7
Bills30.529.6−0.9
Game total54.555.8+1.3

The Lions carry 65% of the gap, so the disagreement is about their scoring rather than the game's.

EVERY PROP IN THIS GAME

Player, game and team props for this matchup. A reason to look closer, never a recommendation.

142 props · by largest gap vs typical error

Player props138

Lions · Away8 players

RECEIVING YARDS
31.5MARKET−8.6WIDE22.9Tank01, median-adjusted
Actual 61.0 · final resultRUSHING YARDS
88.5MARKET+12.5MODERATE101.0Tank01 projection
Actual 52.0 · final resultRECEPTIONS
4.5MARKET−0.6GAP3.9Tank01 projection
Actual 6.0 · final resultRUSH ATTEMPTS
18.5MARKET+0.5In line with market19.0Tank01 projection
Actual 16.0 · final resultRUSH + REC YARDS
123.5MARKET+0.4In line with market123.9Tank01, median-adjusted
Actual 113.0 · final resultLONGEST RUSH
18.5MARKET−5.6WIDE12.9Nuvela
Actual 16.0 · final resultLONGEST RECEPTION
13.5MARKET+2.3WIDE15.8Nuvela
Actual 12.0 · final result1ST TD
20%MARKET · IMPLIED, INCL. BOOK MARGIN—MARKET ONLY
Actual No · final resultANYTIME TD
74%MARKET · IMPLIED, INCL. BOOK MARGIN—MARKET ONLY
Actual Scored · final resultLAST TD
19%MARKET · IMPLIED, INCL. BOOK MARGIN—MARKET ONLY
Actual No · final result
Depth and touchdown only · 5 players · 15 props

Bills · Home8 players

Depth and touchdown only · 5 players · 15 props

Game props2

Game Total PointsCOMBINED SCORE
54.5MARKET+1.3GAP55.855.8
Season range 61-67
Expected MarginHANDICAP · DIFFERENT SCALE
BUF by 5.5MARKET+2.1GAP3.4BUF by 3.4
Season range 1-5

Team props2

Lions · Away1 market

LionsTEAM TOTAL POINTS
24.5MARKET+1.7GAP26.2Nuvela
Season range 31-31

Bills · Home1 market

BillsTEAM TOTAL POINTS
30.5MARKET−0.9GAP29.6Nuvela
Season range 36-36