nuvela.ai

NFL · WEEK 6 · SUNDAY · NEUTRAL SITE · FINAL

Texans vs Jaguars Player Props

Kickoff
Sun, Oct 18 · 6:30 AM PT
Venue
Wembley Stadium
Conditions
Outdoor

The game in numbers

  • -3.1Pass rate over expected
  • 9thPace rank, slate
  • OutdoorConditions

Research, not picks. A starting point to interrogate, never a recommendation.

WHERE THE GAP COMES FROM

TeamMarketNuvelaGap
Texans20.518.6−1.9
Jaguars22.522.9+0.4
Game total42.541.5−1.0

The Texans carry 83% of the gap, so the disagreement is about their scoring rather than the game's.

EVERY PROP IN THIS GAME

Player, game and team props for this matchup. A reason to look closer, never a recommendation.

166 props · by largest gap vs typical error

Player props162

Texans · Away10 players

RECEPTIONS
5.5MARKET−0.8GAP4.7Nuvela
Actual 3.0 · final resultRECEIVING YARDS
73.5MARKET+6.2In line with market79.7Tank01 projection
Actual 74.0 · final resultLONGEST RECEPTION
24.5MARKET+0.8GAP25.3Nuvela
Actual 42.0 · final result1ST TD
11%MARKET · IMPLIED, INCL. BOOK MARGIN—MARKET ONLY
Actual No · final resultANYTIME TD
39%MARKET · IMPLIED, INCL. BOOK MARGIN—MARKET ONLY
Actual Didn't score · final resultLAST TD
12%MARKET · IMPLIED, INCL. BOOK MARGIN—MARKET ONLY
Actual No · final result
Depth and touchdown only · 5 players · 15 props

Jaguars · Home9 players

Depth and touchdown only · 5 players · 15 props

Game props2

Game Total PointsCOMBINED SCORE
42.5MARKET−1.0GAP41.541.5
Season range 26-67
Expected MarginHANDICAP · DIFFERENT SCALE
JAX by 2.5MARKET+1.7GAP4.2JAX by 4.3
Season range 2-29

Team props2

Texans · Away1 market

TexansTEAM TOTAL POINTS
20.5MARKET−1.9GAP18.6Nuvela
Season range 6-31

Jaguars · Home1 market

JaguarsTEAM TOTAL POINTS
22.5MARKET+0.4GAP22.9Nuvela
Season range 13-35