nuvela.ai

NFL · WEEK 1 · SUNDAY · FINAL

Browns vs Jaguars Player Props

Kickoff
Sun, Sep 13 · 10:00 AM PT
Venue
EverBank Stadium
Conditions
Outdoor · 89F, 3 mph wind

The game in numbers

  • —Pass rate over expected
  • —Pace rank, slate
  • OutdoorConditions

Research, not picks. A starting point to interrogate, never a recommendation.

WHERE THE GAP COMES FROM

TeamMarketNuvelaGap
Browns14.516.4+1.9
Jaguars24.523.9−0.6
Game total40.540.3−0.2

The Browns carry 76% of the gap, so the disagreement is about their scoring rather than the game's.

EVERY PROP IN THIS GAME

Player, game and team props for this matchup. A reason to look closer, never a recommendation.

143 props · by largest gap vs typical error

Player props139

Browns · Away7 players

RUSH ATTEMPTS
4.5MARKET · 1 BOOK−1.7WIDE2.8Tank01 projection
Actual 6.0 · final resultRUSHING YARDS
16.5MARKET−5.7WIDE10.8Tank01 projection
Actual 38.0 · final resultPASSING YARDS
176.5MARKET+33.5WIDE210.0Tank01 projection
Actual 205.0 · final resultPASS + RUSH YARDS
194.5MARKET+26.3MODERATE220.8Tank01 projection
Actual 243.0 · final resultPASS ATTEMPTS
30.5MARKET+2.0In line with market32.5Tank01 projection
Actual 22.0 · final resultCOMPLETIONS
18.5MARKET+1.2In line with market19.7Tank01 projection
Actual 16.0 · final resultLONGEST COMPLETION
28.5MARKET—GAP— We don't have enough to project this market yet.—
Actual 46.0 · final resultLONGEST RUSH
9.5MARKET—GAP— We don't have enough to project this market yet.—
Actual 9.0 · final result1ST TD
3%MARKET · IMPLIED, INCL. BOOK MARGIN—MARKET ONLY
Actual No · final resultANYTIME TD
14%MARKET · IMPLIED, INCL. BOOK MARGIN—MARKET ONLY
Actual Didn't score · final resultLAST TD
4%MARKET · IMPLIED, INCL. BOOK MARGIN—MARKET ONLY
Actual No · final resultINTERCEPTIONS
0.5MARKET56%OVER · NO-VIG IMPLIED—MARKET ONLY
Actual 1.0 · final resultPASSING TDS
0.5MARKET59%OVER · NO-VIG IMPLIED—MARKET ONLY
Actual 1.0 · final result
Depth and touchdown only · 6 players · 18 props

Jaguars · Home7 players

Depth and touchdown only · 7 players · 19 props

Game props2

Game Total PointsCOMBINED SCORE
40.5MARKET−0.2GAP40.340.3
No season history yet
Expected MarginHANDICAP · DIFFERENT SCALE
JAX by 8.5MARKET+1.0GAP7.5JAX by 7.5
No season history yet

Team props2

Browns · Away1 market

BrownsTEAM TOTAL POINTS
14.5MARKET+1.9GAP16.4Nuvela
No season history yet

Jaguars · Home1 market

JaguarsTEAM TOTAL POINTS
24.5MARKET−0.6GAP23.9Nuvela
No season history yet