nuvela.ai

NFL · WEEK 3 · SUNDAY · FINAL

Patriots vs Jaguars Player Props

Kickoff
Sun, Sep 27 · 10:00 AM PT
Venue
EverBank Stadium
Conditions
Outdoor · 80F, 7 mph wind

The game in numbers

  • -2.4Pass rate over expected
  • 11thPace rank, slate
  • OutdoorConditions

Research, not picks. A starting point to interrogate, never a recommendation.

WHERE THE GAP COMES FROM

TeamMarketNuvelaGap
Patriots21.520.6−0.9
Jaguars24.523.0−1.5
Game total46.543.6−2.9

The Jaguars carry 62% of the gap, so the disagreement is about their scoring rather than the game's.

EVERY PROP IN THIS GAME

Player, game and team props for this matchup. A reason to look closer, never a recommendation.

155 props · by largest gap vs typical error

Player props151

Patriots · Away8 players

RECEPTIONS
3.5MARKET+0.7GAP4.2Tank01 projection
Actual 1.0 · final resultRECEIVING YARDS
41.5MARKET−1.0In line with market40.5Tank01, median-adjusted
Actual 5.0 · final resultLONGEST RECEPTION
17.5MARKET+2.1MODERATE19.6Nuvela
Actual 5.0 · final result1ST TD
6%MARKET · IMPLIED, INCL. BOOK MARGIN—MARKET ONLY
Actual No · final resultANYTIME TD
29%MARKET · IMPLIED, INCL. BOOK MARGIN—MARKET ONLY
Actual Didn't score · final resultLAST TD
8%MARKET · IMPLIED, INCL. BOOK MARGIN—MARKET ONLY
Actual No · final result
Depth and touchdown only · 6 players · 18 props

Jaguars · Home7 players

Depth and touchdown only · 7 players · 21 props

Game props2

Game Total PointsCOMBINED SCORE
46.5MARKET−2.9GAP43.643.6
Season range 23-44
Expected MarginHANDICAP · DIFFERENT SCALE
JAX by 3.0MARKET+0.6GAP2.4JAX by 2.4
Season range 3-24

Team props2

Patriots · Away1 market

PatriotsTEAM TOTAL POINTS
21.5MARKET−0.9GAP20.6Nuvela
Season range 10-20

Jaguars · Home1 market

JaguarsTEAM TOTAL POINTS
24.5MARKET−1.5GAP23.0Nuvela
Season range 13-34