nuvela.ai

NFL · WEEK 2 · SUNDAY · FINAL

Steelers vs Patriots Player Props

Kickoff
Sun, Sep 20 · 10:00 AM PT
Venue
Gillette Stadium
Conditions
Outdoor · 63F, 7 mph wind

The game in numbers

  • +4Pass rate over expected
  • 4thPace rank, slate
  • OutdoorConditions

Research, not picks. A starting point to interrogate, never a recommendation.

WHERE THE GAP COMES FROM

TeamMarketNuvelaGap
Steelers17.518.3+0.8
Patriots23.521.8−1.7
Game total41.540.1−1.4

The Patriots carry 68% of the gap, so the disagreement is about their scoring rather than the game's.

EVERY PROP IN THIS GAME

Player, game and team props for this matchup. A reason to look closer, never a recommendation.

164 props · by largest gap vs typical error

Player props160

Steelers · Away9 players

RUSH ATTEMPTS
8.5MARKET+2.5WIDE11.0Tank01 projection
Actual 7.0 · final resultRUSHING YARDS
33.5MARKET+10.8WIDE44.3Tank01 projection
Actual 22.0 · final resultRUSH + REC YARDS
51.5MARKET+5.9In line with market57.4Tank01, median-adjusted
Actual 44.0 · final resultRECEIVING YARDS
14.5MARKET−1.4In line with market13.1Tank01, median-adjusted
Actual 22.0 · final resultRECEPTIONS
2.5MARKET−0.1In line with market2.4Tank01 projection
Actual 2.0 · final resultLONGEST RECEPTION
8.5MARKET+1.2MODERATE9.7Nuvela
Actual 13.0 · final resultLONGEST RUSH
10.5MARKET+0.4GAP10.9Nuvela
Actual 6.0 · final result1ST TD
10%MARKET · IMPLIED, INCL. BOOK MARGIN—MARKET ONLY
Actual No · final resultANYTIME TD
33%MARKET · IMPLIED, INCL. BOOK MARGIN—MARKET ONLY
Actual Didn't score · final resultLAST TD
10%MARKET · IMPLIED, INCL. BOOK MARGIN—MARKET ONLY
Actual No · final result
Depth and touchdown only · 5 players · 15 props

Patriots · Home9 players

Depth and touchdown only · 5 players · 15 props

Game props2

Game Total PointsCOMBINED SCORE
41.5MARKET−1.4GAP40.140.1
Season range 23-33
Expected MarginHANDICAP · DIFFERENT SCALE
NE by 4.5MARKET+1.0GAP3.5NE by 3.5
Season range 3-7

Team props2

Steelers · Away1 market

SteelersTEAM TOTAL POINTS
17.5MARKET+0.8GAP18.3Nuvela
Season range 20-20

Patriots · Home1 market

PatriotsTEAM TOTAL POINTS
23.5MARKET−1.7GAP21.8Nuvela
Season range 10-10